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There is the fact that to a certain extent, entrepreneurs know their odds going in. Gamblers more likely than not doesn't.


That's exactly backwards. Most games of chance post odds explicitly. Entrepeneurship works because 1 it actually creates value, not negative expected value, 2 much of the gambling is with other people's money (investors and creditors) who don't get their teeth in if the entrepreneur fails, raising EV further.


Sorry I wasn't being too clear. Knowing the odds as in "I know I have little chance to have an exit, but I still want to do it anyway". While gamblers might see the odds posted but still think "I'm gonna be the one guy who wins".


Many gamblers know the numbers fairly well. The problem is they let their heart convince them that the Gambler's Fallacy doesn't exist for them.




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