> I'd even argue that the miner hiding his block is in a worse position.
That's just an intuition. You keep saying "having a headstart doesn't help, because those are independent probabilities". Which is wrong: having a headstart does help. How much does it help, and is it worth it? That's the whole question. And it would require more work to answer it.
But I'll stop discussing that with you. It's pointless and you're way too condescending.