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> Domestic help was once available because there was an extreme surplus of dirt poor people.

That's precisely the Baulmol effect. When your next-best job is subsistence farming, being employed as domestic help is a step up. When your next-best job is (e.g.) something relatively well-paid in a factory or a phone exchange, being domestic help is no longer so attractive.

> That, or the effect isn't all that it is claimed to be; it's almost tautological that as supply of workers for a low paying job dries up, the wages for the job have to go up to retain workers.

I think we agree here. The mechanism of the Baulmol effect is pretty boring and pedestrian, but the outcome is surprising in aggregate. It's "why are we paying X times more for the same number of teachers?" and "why are there fewer tailors and more fast fashion?" and "why can't I find a handyman who won't refuse to fix something around my house because the job is 'too small'?" all wrapped up in one.



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