I don't know the answer to your question, but in addition to the mechanisms you mention there's at least one more: there's some evidence that fear in general, and fear of death in particular, tends to make people more supportive of right-wing authoritarian government.
(I don't mean to imply that right-wing = authoritarian; I pair them together because my recollection is that the research in question was specifically about right-wing authoritarianism and not about rightism generally or authoritarianism generally.)
So (1) to whatever extent the GOP is authoritarian as well as right-wing, or at least pushes the same psychological buttons that authoritarian rightists do, it might benefit from having a population that feels afraid, and (2) maybe Mr Trump would have done better politically with something along the lines of "This is a deadly epidemic, sweeping in from scary foreign countries, and only your strong President can protect you and keep you safe". I guess the restriction on air travel from Europe may be intended as a bit of a pivot in that direction.
(I don't mean to imply that right-wing = authoritarian; I pair them together because my recollection is that the research in question was specifically about right-wing authoritarianism and not about rightism generally or authoritarianism generally.)
So (1) to whatever extent the GOP is authoritarian as well as right-wing, or at least pushes the same psychological buttons that authoritarian rightists do, it might benefit from having a population that feels afraid, and (2) maybe Mr Trump would have done better politically with something along the lines of "This is a deadly epidemic, sweeping in from scary foreign countries, and only your strong President can protect you and keep you safe". I guess the restriction on air travel from Europe may be intended as a bit of a pivot in that direction.