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or he just got very lucky. it only seems like he was "ahead of his time" because the story worked out - when you look at other acquisitions like say Oculus or Parse, I would argue it seems quite the opposite.


If you spend $4 billion on acquisitions and one of those becomes worth $100 billion that is a win no matter how you slice it.


of course it is win, no one is saying it's not a win, what im suggesting is there is a much higher probability that MZ got really lucky than assuming he some sort of clairvoyant genius.


Whatsapp has over 1.5B users now. Facebook paid for it mostly with stock back in 2014. That was a solid buy.

Oculus while not a huge success was also only bought for a few billion. Not a bad loss. Parse wasn’t bought for that much. It might’ve not been a loss either.

When two of their bigger acquisitions are slam dunk successes or just successes, that’s a pretty good record.




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