> It's really hard to tell and there are big short-term swings

I completely agree. That said, we have enough data to conclude that real wages are higher today than they were pre-crisis for the vast majority of Americans. The uncertainty is more pronounced if one were to ask the same question in respect of the last 4 or 5 years, in which case I'd have to say "we don't know".

"for the vast majority of Americans"

That isn't quite right. Labor force participation fell after 2008, and it has never recovered. While wages might have seen a revival for those lucky enough to have a job, there remains a large block of people who were pushed out of the work force and never found a way back in. See the chart here:

http://www.smashcompany.com/business/labor-force-participati...

Labor force participation is age dependent. If someone is 45 they expect to work another 20 years. But if they lose their job, they have little hope of finding another job that pays as much as their previous job. Generally, an unemployed 50 year old would be lucky to get a minimum wage job. Presumably they made more than that during their career. They won't get back what they used to make (exceptions for those at the peak of their professions).

So folks with jobs are seeing slightly higher wages, but you also need to take into account all the folks who lost their jobs permanently.

> you also need to take into account all the folks who lost their jobs permanently

Another group that needs to be taken into account is the younger generation that is having problems even starting a career.

My sister graduated from university a few years ago, and - like almost everybody else she knows in her generation - is bouncing between unemployment and terrible minimum wage jobs (some are de facto lower than minimum wage due to wage theft).

Baby boomers had the luxury of low housing prices, a massive stock bull market, and low education costs. There was never a better time to start a business -- overhead was low. The generation coming up now has to hit the proverbial lottery to have a similar chance today given the high fixed living expenses of housing, student loans, and health care.