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I think 1/2 argument makes essential use of the fact that the "2 people" are the same person at different times. Ultimately it comes down to a different idea of the way "being right twice" is valued. In the 1/3 position, the model is that each time you answer the question you get something good if you're right. In the 1/2 perspective, the idea is that after the whole experiment is over you either were simply correct or incorrect, and being correct twice doesn't count any extra.


You don't get to be "right twice"

The question is When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?

It's not a guessing competition, it's asking you to assess the probability of a past event that you have no new information about.




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